Saturday, September 28, 2013

Economic Geography workshop Budapest

Evolutionary economic geography in Central and Eastern Europe 

Budapest, 11-15 November 2013

More info

The Economics of Networks Research Unit at Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of Hungarian Academy of Sciences (CERSHAS) is pleased to announce the workshop on „Evolutionary Economic Geography in Central and Eastern Europe”, featuring Ron Boschma.

New friend site

Regionomist says hello to a new friend: http://transporteconomics.hu/!

Monday, June 3, 2013

Recent posts by ELTEcon students

In the past few months, folks from the ELTEcon posted on Regionomist and their topics varied a great deal from European regional topics, to Hungarian transport policy, from clusters to cities.

There have been some really interesting posts. Considering that several European people or regions consider secession of their country, the post by Ambrus Bárány considered economic consequences of exit by Catalonia from Spain. He looked at trade and market potential and found that the impact would be severe economically. Rozália Kepes discussed the social consequences of urban design in a piece with high buildings and the great Jane Jacobs. And no blog is worthwhile without posts on good food - and thanks to Balázs Szabo, we have a nice post on Italian clusters of prosciutto.
 
And hey, some of the posts have been really popular. The arguments for revival of trams in France by Ákos Budai was seen by almost five hundred readers!

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

The social consequences of urban design and building structure

The social consequences of urban design and building structure

Jane Jacobs’s eyes on the street, and an econometric critique of Le Corbusier’s high-rise public housing


by Rozalia Kepes 

The 20th century challenged the urban environment in many ways: growing industrialism, the proliferation of cars and the migration of the rural masses to cities resulted in such radical social changes that even the rapid technological development could barely keep abreast of them. It is thus not surprising that the modern architects focused much less on ornamentation and diversity, and much more on function, efficiency, and standardized simplicity, which they intended to realize by comprehensive urban planning. Among the most influential of them was the Swiss-French architect Le Corbusier, whose works had a long-lasting effect on European and American urban design.

According to Le Corbusier, the only way to avoid the dirty and over-crowded slums that had emerged as a consequence of the industrial revolution was to construct high-rise, high-density buildings surrounded by parks. He planned to house the growing population of the cities vertically, not horizontally, in order to provide as many people with space and sunlight as possible, and at the same time to give way to the new mechanization: the automobile. As it is visible on the picture below – the Plan Voisin, illustrating Le Corbusier’s 1925 design to reconstruct downtown Paris – , his vision was to set up a set of isolated high-rises, each surrounded by a little island of park, and connected by wide roads occupied by heavy traffic.



Most of Le Corbusier’s critics, such as the members of the “townscape movement”, emphasized the “urban experience”: this meant that instead of the professional architects’ pleasure, what should really matter was the residents’ perception of the city. It was the zealous journalist, Jane Jacobs, who – with her intuitive and lucid writing – explained why Le Corbusier’s well-meaning plan of providing the poor with high-rise public housing was a bad idea. As it is demonstrated by Gerda Wekerle, Jacobs’s “critique of public housing design included a discussion of long, unwatched corridors, unguarded elevators, stairwells and courtyards that become settings for rape, theft and vandalism”.

Jane Jacobs emphasized the importance of “eyes on the street”, which hypothesis became known as one of her most influential contributions to urban sociology and economics. This means that high density areas, instead of being a source of discomfort, are in fact more than desirable: private monitoring, the positive externality coming from the presence of others on the street can play a crucial role in stopping crime. Therefore, Le Corbusier’s high-rise buildings, by increasing the physical distance between the average apartment inhabitant and the street below, reduce crime prevention.

Two world-famous economists, Edward Glaeser and Bruce Sacerdote used econometric methods to test the eyes-on-the-street model. Using the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reports database, they estimated the frequency of per capita crime rates, and found striking results. Their regressions showed that while burglary and petty larceny (theft without threat of violence) were in no way connected with the percentage of population living in tall apartment buildings or in detached houses, street crimes (i.e. robberies and car thefts) occurred significantly more frequently around multi-unit dwellings. To be precise, „the predicted level of victimization is 6.7 percent greater in a big apartment building relative to living in a single family detached house” (once they control for sex, ethnicity, income, education, marital status, age and public housing).

Furthermore, they managed to show that it was not the number of apartments in the house, but the number of floors (therefore the height of the building) that really mattered. These results seem to prove that Jane Jacobs was right – the more people (and thus their eyes) are lifted away from the street-level, the more dangerous the street (but not the apartment itself!) will become. At the same time, this seems to prove Konrad Lorenz wrong, who in his book On Aggression, had argued that it is simply the density of multi-unit dwellings that makes people more aggressive: had he been right, we would have observed more crime of every sort, not only of street crime.

It is my hope that the example of high-rise dwellings has proved how complex effects urban design and building structure can have on social phenomena, and how important economic analysis is in evaluating the potential consequences of a policy decision.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

The main exporter of the world and its increasing labor costs: China

The main exporter of the world and its increasing labor costs: China 

by Varga Anita

I think it is not surprising that in 2011 China was again the biggest exporter of the word. Some of the main advantages of the country are the low labor and transportation costs. However the former is getting higher and higher.

Comparing countries by their exports in 2011 China was followed by the European Union, Germany and the United States. The reason why this country could become the biggest manufacturer of the world is that the country has some comparative advantages. As well known the country is not just labor abundant, but also the cost of labor are quite low. On the other hand, this cannot be the only reason as there are many other countries and areas where the wages and other costs are also relatively low. Additionally in many cases these other countries are much nearer to the importer. So there have to be other explanations.

According to economic geography the firms’ decisions are strongly influenced by transport costs. This principle can be also used in this case, so to explain why China is the biggest exporter of the world. So an other significant advantage of China is its geographical location (its first nature), as it has a coastal part. This means low transport costs. These two comparative advantages, so the low labor cost and low transportation cost can explain why China specialized in exporting mainly those labor intensive goods which are also easy to transport.

As a result most of the foreign investments, according to some estimate from 1980 the 90% of them, arrived in coastal areas. The cities where the most significant economic growth took place are situated on the seaside, such as Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Dalian.

However China can lose one of its main comparative advantages, as labor costs getting higher and higher which means a real challenge for many companies. Not surprisingly this progress started in the coastal areas, where most of the firms are situated. It can be explained by the Heckscher-Ohlin model which says: if a country has a comparative advantage, but there is free trade then the factor prices equalize. Thus nowadays the coastal areas of China are not as attractive as they used to be. As a result some companies have already moved to other parts of China and to other attractive countries, for example to India and Vietnam, where the labor cost are still lower. And as they also have coastal parts their first nature is similar to China.

Perhaps now some people think that because of these changes most of the companies will leave the coastal part of China. However it is not so simple because there are other things that should be considered, as China still has some advantages. Even though the labor costs are really lower in inland China, the transport costs are much higher. In addition China has already a reasonable supply chain, and it has also advantages considering its second nature: for example the transporting infrastructure is better than in India or in Vietnam. It is also important to mention that the Chinese workers’ productivity is also better which can partly explain the higher wages. So the main advantage of India and Vietnam are their lower labor costs. This can explain why mainly those companies left China which were related to labor intensive industries. However it is not a big problem for China as now its aim is to develop advanced technologies so as to attract more high tech enterprises.

So in spite of the increasing labor costs of China, which was a significant advantage of the country, it still has some other advantages. But of course the changes have some effects. As China and the other countries with lower labor cost have in some extent different factor abundance, some kind of specialization can be observed among them: mainly labor intensive companies are moving to India and Vietnam, while China started to attract companies with high technology.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

How Beijing-Shanghai rail will effect economic growth?

How Beijing-Shanghai rail will effect economic growth? 


by Vanda Szendrei

Improving public transportation has always played an important role in economic development. Now you can see the possible effects of the new Chinese high speed railway, even for clustering.

In the summer of 2011 the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway started to operate connecting together two major economic zones. The railway is 1.318-kilometre long and it is the world’s longest high-speed line ever constructed in a single phase. This line means only one part of the huge railway development in China: starting with the operation of China’s first high-speed railway, Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway on August 1, 2008, China’s high speed railway develops from nothing. In the past four years, 21 high-speed railways have been come into service. Until the end of July 2012, the total mileage of China’s high-speed railway reaches up to 6,894km, ranking first in the world. Let’s have a look why the railway is vital for China! 



This development is determined by both China’s first and second geographic nature. Regarding its first geographic nature, China is a vast country with 5,000 km of north-south and east-vast distance. As for second geographic nature the distribution of resources and industries is uneven and large amount of goods through the regions needs to be transported via train. These reasons explain the importance of these giant constructions.

One of the first effects was the decline in transportation costs. Coinciding with the rail launch, economy airfares have slumped with 52 % immediately. However, fares in less price sensitive business and first-class markets appear to have remained comparatively unaffected. Since commuting has become faster for most people, the real distance (measured in time, not in distance) has decreased.

Going back to the impacts, accelerating economic growth seems to be obvious. According to the China Daily newspaper, the newest high-speed railway will create a new economic belt and strengthen the integration of the Bohai Sea Rim and the Yangtze River Delta economic zones. Indeed before the operation started, cities surrounding the railway had benefited from its potential economic effect because real estate prices have risen in spite of the general downward trend. For example in Changzhou, a third-tier city the real estate prices doubled within one year. Soaring housing prices along the rail line are due to the high-speed train's projected effect of business clustering – predicts the paper.

The “direction of” the clustering is an important question. Probably the concerned inter-cities will behave as Central Business Districts gaining more importance over the neighbouring area. Although, as we have seen in the case of the fast-railway between Madrid and the southern part of Spain, a possible outcome is that either Shanghai or Beijing or both of them will loose from their leading role and there will be a shift in emphases to the five inter-stations.

This hypothesis is supported by Zhao Hui who analysed the prospects of this measure with investigating the case of Jinan West Area. The expert predicts that after the completion of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, the passenger capacity can achieve 27,000,000 people in the very short time which will lead to huge demand to service industry therefore the market potential of these areas will increase as well. It is possible that local cultural industry will develop enormously. According to the plan, Jinan’s Cartoon Industry will achieve 20 billion dollar. Moreover Huaiyin Industry district, Huaiyin Industry Science district and Modernization International Physical distribution which are close to the station will gain a chance to develop.

However, it seems a self-generating process the government has a vital role too. So, what should the government do? At first, they should provide an appropriate environment for investment through following the market economy rule, producing effective administration environment and promoting strict and standard legal and faithful credit environment. Secondly, they should display the function of strategy guidance It realizes by the pure pursue quantity to quality, introduces better project of high technology, intensity investment, low resources consume, less environmental pollution, strong lead role, good development prospects. Finally, they should formulate corresponding industrial promotion policy continuity. That means, relevant institution should pay close attention to research corresponding executive regulation to enlarge the support to the development of Cartoon Industry. Evolving good tax environment can be a key to this goal.

What we can deduct from case study is that although high-speed rail means a great opportunity for clustering, Chinese policy-makers need to be cautious in order to promote and not hinder the development.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

The prosciuotto cluster of San Daniele

The prosciuotto cluster of San Daniele 


by Szabó Balázs

The prosciutto of San Daniele is a world famous ham which is made only by a few town. The business model of this region is based on the experience of decades and the cooperation of local manufacturers.The success roots from the unique production process and the special two-tier cluster system of San Daniele makes the brand even more valuable. 


Perhaps most of us have seen the name of „prosciutto di San Daniele” on the European restaurants’ menus. The famous Italian ham is usually served with melon or sometimes with fig. The production of this unique, delicious food is based on the special knowledge accumulated over generations in the territory of San Daniele. The cool air coming from the hills mixed with the salty air of the seaside makes the territory quite suitable for the production of this ham. The first written proof of the high quality production dates back to the 18th century. Nowadays the production is organised by a consortium utilizing the special environmental conditions. Since this business model is very successful, we can draw some conclusions: some small towns, with a high-quality product can remain profitable on this highly competitive market dominated by big companies. 



The strict rules applied to the breeders, slaughterhouses and food companies are the basic conditions for the production of this fine product. The pigs can be bred only in the 10 determined regions around San Daniele, and their feeding is highly regulated. The pigs are slaughtered when they reach the weight of 160 kilograms. After the slaughter the meat is cooled down in order to get a steady temperature and humidity. The next processes are the removing of the bones, extruding and salting. The 4-5 month old hams are stored for maturation for 9 months. After having completed the process which takes at least 13 months, if the producers find everything in order, e.g. the size, weight and colour, the ham can get the San Daniele brand name.

This complex and precise process and the special environmental conditions are the basis of the San Daniele ham’s competitiveness. The ham producing business model is based on the cooperation of local manufacturers. The present cluster organization’s predecessor was founded in 1961. Nowadays the cluster consists of 31 ham manufacturers which have business relationships with more than 100 slaughterhouses and 4500 pig farms. The 31 manufacturers produce 2,7 million pieces of hams every year, one fifth of them for exports. The revenue generated from these hams was EUR 335 million in 2010.

The speciality of this business model is the two- tier cooperation among local companies. On one hand there is cooperation within San Daniele ham consortium to produce quality hams while on the other hand there is Agro-food Park, which has the main goal to protect the natural environmental resources. It means that the companies within the territory are responsible not only for the mutual innovation, marketing and brand equity development, for the protection of the environment as well, and they emphasize this role very actively.

Agro-food Park is situated in province Udine, covering the villages and towns in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia area. The park stretches over 168 km2 and has 2500 inhabitants. Agro-food’s objective is to preserve the natural treasure and traditions of the region. It wishes to develop such a sustainable business strategy that will make the region well known in the world. The combination of sun, river, air and mountain on the logo of the park serves this objective. The park’s operations is based on the consortium of more than 100 businesses, which employs 1,000 people and gives a job to 700 more people through sub-contractors. These companies do business in different fields of food industry. The most important food productions comprise dry-cured ham, beef, cured pork products; sweet and savoury bakery goods; diary products; fish and smoked trout; organic products; wine and spirits.

The park assigned an annual budget of EUR 1 million to develop marketing, innovation, international trade and environment protection strategies. However the park may face difficulties to finance these projects as major part of the money has been provided by regional development funds. This shortage in financing will probably be covered by local private businesses.

The second tier of the business strategy is the Prosciuotto di San Daniele consortium, the partnership of ham makers that is integral part of Agro-food. The consortium focuses its effort on quality assurance and marketing. Certain companies outsourced almost all the marketing activities to the consortium, having provided EUR 20 million to manage joint promotional and marketing activities in 1988 - 2010. The ham with the San Daniele logo guarantees the quality of the ham in domestic or foreign markets. This premium market position is further strengthened by the ham from San Daniele having the PDO (Protected Designation of Origin) certificate that guarantees the region of origin of the pigs, quality of the ham manufacturing and maturation processes.

The speciality of San Daniele cluster is visible. The 31 profit-oriented companies that compete with each other are able to manage some key business activities jointly. The possibility for them to cooperate is provided by their mutual traditions and technologies. Both the Agro-food Park and the consortium are vital that a small, apparently unremarkable town can be a match for either multinational companies that produce lower quality ham or prosciutto from Parma region of equally high quality.

Monday, March 25, 2013

The Ocean’s Hot Dog – The Fish Stick and its Development

The Ocean’s Hot Dog – The Fish Stick and its Development 

by Éva Révész

At first sight it might seem strange to mention fish sticks together with the topics like science parks and clusters but as you will see, they are strongly related.

Transport costs are extremely important in the theory of New Economic Geography and in each and every field of economics. With the lowering of transport costs, after a certain point the economy settles in agglomeration. In agglomerations, innovations start as ideas are close to each other, so these happenings give way to the formation of clusters and science parks, as well. That is exactly the thing that happened in the fish stick industry. Let’s have a closer look at it!

The fish stick is a postwar invention as Paul Josephson says in his study. First, people abstained from trying it as they did not look great and people were not used to these types of „fast food”. But later on, as innovations were made to improve the quality and their looks, and as women became busier and had less time to cook they began to use ready-to-cook food like fish sticks. In order to make it profitable, so called „floating factories” were built, ie. ships that had the necessary equipment onboard to prepare the ready-to-cook fish sticks (fishing, cleaning, freezing, canning, etc. were done still on board). (The picture represents a fish processor/factory mother ship from the late 1980s from Finland.)

What is more, to propagate the consumption of these types of food, innovations occured in freezing and storing techniques and in transportation, too. Supermakets, which were opened in the 1930s in the US, had to install high-capacity refrigerated display cases where the product could be properly stored. What is more, trucks and railway cars having the new freezing techniques were introduced in order to ease the transportation of fish sticks and other fresh and frozen goods on land. Even the expansion of the federal highway system in the 1950s helped the industry to proceed. That is why transportation costs became lower.


What else happened? Other innovations and regulations in terms of the quality also helped the fish stick to become a widely popular food of Americans. Strange as it seems, but scientists from such – nowadays popular – universities as MIT or Harvard made researches. Economists form Harvard made a detailed report to determine the proper long-term strategy to secure the position of Gorton’s (discussed later on) within the industry and researchers from MIT’s Department of Food Technology helped the same firm to improve the quality control and efficiency of production of fish sticks. MIT even sponsored the so called „first seminar in the history of frozen foods industry”. Almost a whole science park centered around this small industry to help and propagte it!

As I have already mentioned, the Gorton’s Gloucester Corporation was a small company that later became the leader of this industry by the good managing of the firm. It constantly expanded its product line, paid huge attention to the quality of its products and advertised a lot to attract consumers. As time passed, other firms, like Birds Eye and Fulham Brothers entered the market of fish sticks and other frozen foods, which first seemed great as these firms began to act like a cluster in Massachusetts: they competed against each other, on the other hand they improved the quality of the products, which was good news to the consumers, and paid significant attention to the level of it. But later on, unfortunately, competition grew bigger at the expense of quality.

What is the end of the story? Fish sticks did not become as popular as hamburgers in America, but not even elsewhere. The industry boomed in an unbelievable way but shrinked in the same way and with the same speed as it started out. Why did it happen? In my opinion, it was not as popular as hamburger among ordinary people, as it still needed some cooking, so as the quality worsened people began to substitute it with something else. One thing is sure: fish sticks became only „the ocean’s hot dog”, not „the ocean’s hamburger”.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

The Californian high-speed rail project

The Californian high-speed rail project 

A prestige investment


by Szilard Peredi

The construction of the high-speed rail in California started with big expectations, but now it seems that the efficiency of the project is strongly questionable.

The High-speed rails are probably the most amazing transport systems of the world. These rails are the symbols of the future’s technologies in some way. Maybe that’s the reason, why it becomes to a prestige investment instead of an efficient movement of the governments.

Of course, it’s very hard to compute the costs and the benefits before the construction. The engineers have to take into account the demography and macroeconomic changes, the intertemporal trade-offs, and a lot of stochastic variables. But after the construction, they also need to find all of the externalities, to be able to rate the project. So you can never have an ultimate opinion about the success of a HSR development.

However, if a project lost the support of the majority before the first segment of the implementing, probably something went wrong. This happened in the case of the Californian high-speed rail project. The project biggest purpose is to connect Los Angeles and San Francisco with high-speed rail service by about 2028. 

The project wasn’t the only in the USA, but all of the other HSR programs was canceled because of the local politics. It can be said generally, the US government with Barack Obama supported the projects, while the local politicians were against them because of the nuisances. And in this fight the only survival was California with its strong democratic background.

It’s hard to believe that with this history this could be an efficient program, and the happenings justify our opinion. The California High-Speed Rail Authority, which is managing the project, announced a delay, which reduced the supporter basis of the construction. And this basis wasn’t so strong before the notification either.

In The USA the property rights are strong, and this is hardly compatible with big infrastructural developments. The planned track traverses a lot of farmer’s land, and they doesn’t see any of the advantages of the project. But this also could be said about churches, schools, businesses and homeowners near the track.

If we suppose that the government is the arm of the citizens, the project wouldn’t be finished at all. In 2008 people voted $9 billion bond issue to funding the early stages of the project. And this is just a small part of the whole needed finance support. The whole cost of the bullet train project is $68 billion.

After 4 years, in 2012, a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll found changes in people’s opinion. The 55% of the answerers want back the $9 billion bond issue, which was voting with majority in 2008, and 59% said that, if they could vote again in this case, they would vote against it.

The plans also changed a lot during the 4 years. According the new calculations, the cost of the project will be the double of the original amount. Moreover, now the constructors plan the sharing of the track with slower commuter and freight trains in some areas.

According to the coalition of bullet train backers this investment is needed in long term, because the other forms of transport, like cars and airplanes, will reach their limit.

But we can say that these problems come with democracy, and don’t affect the long term efficiency. But the poll saddest part is the results, which said that the most of the people don’t think that, they will use the HSR in more than once in a week.

Of course, none of the arguments above guarantee the failure of the Californian high-speed rail project. The bias of the poll could be big, and the opinions maybe temporary. But I think that this project shows a good example, that a mainly political prestige investment how becomes a not supporting money wasting.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

The industrial park of Pécs

The industrial park of Pécs 

by Márton Kormanik

This post examines the way the industrial park of Pécs was created and whether it was successful or not. It also tries to outline if the industrial park was capable of coping with the recent crisis or not.

The following post is going to be about the industrial park of Pécs. There was a campaign for encouraging the establishment of new industrial parks throughout different regions of the country. That program is called IPPP (Industrial Parks Partnership Programme) and it aimed for an increasing number of industrial parks each year beginning with 1997. The programme was considered highly successful for being enough of a force to create 165 industrial parks around Hungary until 2003. Later on the European Union contributed to this program with 138,309 EUR. 



What was a really good idea of this programme was to focus on poor regions. In 1999 there were 112 industrial parks established, and 66 of these parks were installed within the four poorest regions of Hungary (northern Hungary, the Great North Plain, the Great South Plain and southern Transdanubia). The primary goal of installing these parks in poor regions must had been to decrease regional inequalities within Hungary to an acceptable level. The programme was also supported by Italian partners, who granted training for the directors of the 66 parks established in the poorest regions.

Through this programme the industrial park of Pécs was also established. This industrial park replaced mining facilities that provided workplaces for local people, and it had overcome its predecessor in many ways. First of all mining is a very harmful industry for nature and human health too. By bringing down the mining facilities the pollution of that location dropped sharply. Second, the industrial park not just employed more people than the mines previously, but it also opened a re- and further training facilities that are now vital in supplying companies with highly trained, advance and cheap workforce. This had various results during the years since then.

First of all, the industrial park of Pécs became an agglomerating force. More and more companies settled down in the park, thus raising its importance even further. Although the financial crisis of 2008 sort of broke that trend, for many companies became bankrupt or were just simply forced to streamline their budget, and this resulted in many plots being sold.

But this still does not mean that the industrial park in Pécs is done forever. In fact, the financial crisis might be a positive impact in the end. Investments and expenditures began in the year of 2006 supported by the government that are probably becoming productive soon. Those investments focused on expanding the territory of the park and developing the infrastructure.

The raising amount of disposable land raises the supply of land that already had been boosted by those companies that went bankrupt during the crisis. This means that soon the land prices should start dropping within the industrial park, which could attract other companies or investors. Furthermore, the training facilities still operate there, creating well qualified and cheap workforce, what can also attract companies. And if more companies or investors could be attracted then soon, the industrial park of Pécs could flourish again. All in all in my opinion the industrial park of Pécs can be considered a success. There are 3 main reasons supporting my opinion. The first one is that the park replaced a harmful industry with industries that have less devastating effects on the nature and human health. Second, the park had been considered a success by companies too, because they chose to move there in great numbers. Third, despite the relapse caused by the financial crisis the industrial park still have many opportunities to utilize.

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